"Ngexesha leNgxelo yoNyaka" eliphantse lifike esiphelweni nge-30 ka-Epreli, iinkampani ezidweliswe kwi-A ngokuthandabuza okanye ngokungakhathali zanikezela ngeengxelo zonyaka zika-2021.Kwimboni ye-photovoltaic, i-2021 yanele ukuba ibhalwe kwimbali ye-photovoltaics, kuba imincintiswano kwi-industry chain yaqala ukungena kwi-white-hot stage ngo-2021. Ngokubanzi, i-PV industry chain iqukethe amacandelo angundoqo afana ne-silicon, i-silicon. ii-wafers, iiseli kunye neemodyuli, kunye namacandelo esibini njengezinto ezincedisayo ze-PV kunye nezixhobo ze-PV.
"I-grid parity" yaqondwa kwimveliso yamandla e-photovoltaic eyayilandelwa iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi kwi-terminal photovoltaic powerplants, leyo ibeka phambili iimfuno ezingqongqo kwiindleko ze-photovoltaic industry chain.
Kwicandelo le-silicon yekhonkco loshishino ukuya phezulu, kukho imfuno enkulu yamandla aluhlaza ngenxa yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni, okwenza amaxabiso esilicon anyuswe ngesantya esicothayo anyuke kabukhali, oko kubangele impembelelo enkulu kulwabiwo lwengeniso yokuqala yekhonkco loshishino. .
Kwicandelo le-silicon wafer, amandla amatsha e-silicon wafers njenge-Shangji Automation icela umngeni kubavelisi be-silicon bafer;kwicandelo leseli, iiseli zohlobo lwe-N ziqala ukuthatha indawo yeeseli zohlobo lwe-P.
Zonke ezi ziganeko zithungelanayo zinokwenza abatyali-mali bazive bebhidekile.Kodwa ekupheleni kweengxelo zonyaka, sinokubamba imbono yeenzuzo kunye nelahleko yenkampani nganye ye-PV ngokusebenzisa idatha yezemali.
Esi sithuba siza kuphonononga iziphumo zonyaka zeenkampani ezininzi ze-PV kwaye zaphule idatha yezemali ephambili kumacandelo ahlukeneyo ekhonkco leshishini ngelizama ukuphendula le mibuzo mibini ilandelayo:
1. Ngawaphi amacandelo oshishino lwePV abone inzuzo ngo-2021?
2. Ziya kusasazwa njani iingeniso zePV ishishini kwixa elizayo?Ngawaphi amacandelo afanele ukuyila?
Inzuzo enkulu ye-silicon ikhuthaza ukukhula kwee-silicone wafers, kodwa iiseli zabona ishishini elicothayo
Kumacandelo aphambili ekhonkco loshishino lwePV, siye sakhetha iinkampani ezidwelisiweyo zePV ezineenkcukacha ezicacileyo zedatha yezemali kumacandelo oshishino lwesilicon - wafer - cell - modyuli, kwaye uthelekise ingeniso kunye nobunzima bomda wegross yamacandelo ahlukeneyo oshishino lwenkampani nganye. , ukuze kuboniswe ngokucacileyo utshintsho lwenzuzo yecandelo ngalinye lekhonkco loshishino lwePV.
Izinga lokukhula kwengeniso yamacandelo aphambili ekhonkco leshishini lePV liphezulu kunenqanaba lokukhula kweshishini.Ngokwedatha ye-CPIA, i-PV entsha efakiweyo umthamo wehlabathi ibimalunga ne-170GW ngo-2021, ukonyuka kwe-23% unyaka nonyaka, ngelixa izinga lokukhula kwengeniso ye-silicon/wafer/cell/module yayiyi-171.2%/70.4%/62.8% / 40.5% ngokulandelelanayo, kwimeko yokuncipha.
Ukusuka kumbono we-gross margin, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lokuthengisa le-silicon linyuke ukusuka kwi-78,900 / toni ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-193,000 / toni ngo-2021. Ukuzuza ngokunyuka kwexabiso elibalulekileyo, umda we-silicon unyuke kakhulu ukusuka kwi-30.36% ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-64. 2021.
Icandelo le-wafer libonise ukomelela okuqinileyo, kunye nemida eshiyekileyo malunga ne-24% kule minyaka mithathu idlulileyo, ngaphandle kokunyuka okubukhali kweendleko ze-silicon.Kukho izizathu ezibini eziphambili ze-gross margin ezinzileyo yecandelo le-wafer: Okokuqala, i-wafer ikwimo eyomeleleyo kwityathanga leshishini kwaye inamandla othethathethwano olomeleleyo phezu kwabavelisi beeseli ezisezantsi, ezinokususa uninzi loxinzelelo lweendleko.Okwesibini, i-Zhonghuan Semiconductor, enye yecala elibalulekileyo lemveliso yabavelisi be-silicon, iphucule kakhulu inzuzo yayo emva kokugqitywa kohlaziyo lwe-hybrid kunye nokunyuswa kwama-silicon wafers angama-210, ngaloo ndlela idlala indima yokuzinzisa kumda opheleleyo weli candelo.
Iseli kunye nemodyuli lixhoba lokwenyani lokunyuka kwexabiso le-silicon.I-gross margin yeseli yehla ukusuka kwi-14.47% ukuya kwi-7.46%, ngelixa i-gross margin yemodyuli yehla ukusuka kwi-17.24% ukuya kwi-12.86%.
Isizathu sokusebenza ngcono komda we-gross yecandelo lemodyuli xa kuthelekiswa necandelo leeseli kukuba iinkampani zemodyuli ezingundoqo zonke iinkampani ezidibeneyo kwaye azinabo abaphakathi bokufumana umahluko, ngoko ke baxhathisa ngakumbi kuxinzelelo.I-Aikosolar, i-Tongwei kunye nezinye iinkampani zeeselfowuni kufuneka zithenge ii-silicone wafers kwezinye iinkampani, ngoko ke imida yazo yenzuzo ngokucacileyo iyacudiswa.
Ekugqibeleni, ukusuka kwingeniso epheleleyo (ingeniso yokusebenza * i-gross margin) utshintsho, i-gap yesiphelo phakathi kwamacandelo ahlukeneyo e-photovoltaic industry chain ibonakala ngakumbi.
Ngo-2021,ingeniso yegross yecandelo le-silicon ikhule ukuya kutsho kuma-472%, ngelixa i-gross profit yecandelo leseli yehle nge-16.13%.
Ukongeza, sinokubona ukuba nangona umda we-gross wecandelo le-wafer ungatshintshi, inzuzo enkulu inyuke phantse ngama-70%.Ngapha koko, ukuba siyijonga ngokwembono yenzuzo, ii-silicon wafers eneneni zixhamla kwixabiso le-silicon lokunyuka kwamaza.
Imida ye-Photovoltaic eyi-axiliary material iyonakaliswa, kodwa abathengisi bezixhobo bahlala bomelele
Samkela indlela efanayo kwizinto ezincedisayo kunye nezixhobo ze-photovoltaic industry chain.Kwiinkampani ezidweliswe kwi-photovoltaic, sikhethe iibhidi ezifanelekileyo, kwaye sihlalutye imeko yenzuzo yamacandelo ahambelanayo.
Inkampani nganye yabona ukwehla kumda opheleleyo wecandelo lezinto ezincedisayo ze-photovoltaic, kodwa bonke banokufikelela kwinzuzo.Ngokubanzi, iglasi yePV kunye nee-inverters ziye zasokola ekwandiseni ingeniso ngaphandle kokunyusa inzuzo kakhulu, ngelixa izinga lokukhula kwengeniso yefilimu ye-PV lalihle kakhulu.
Idatha yezemali yomthengisi wezixhobo ngamnye izinzile kakhulu kwicandelo lezixhobo zePV.Ngokubhekiselele kumda opheleleyo, umda olinganiselweyo opheleleyo womthengisi ngamnye wezixhobo unyuke ukusuka kwi-33.98% ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-34.54% ngo-2021, phantse ungachatshazelwa ziingxabano ezahlukeneyo kwicandelo eliphambili le-PV.Ngokwengeniso, ingeniso yokusebenza iyonke yabathengisi bezixhobo ezisibhozo xa bebonke nayo inyuke ngama-40%.
Ukusebenza ngokubanzi kwekhonkco loshishino lwePV kufutshane nomphezulu we-silicon kunye ne-wafer segment yenzuzo ilungile ngo-2021, ngelixa iseli esezantsi kunye necandelo lemodyuli lixhomekeke kwiimfuno ezingqongqo zeendleko zesikhululo samandla, ngaloo ndlela kuncitshiswa inzuzo.
Izinto ezincedisayo ze-Photovoltaic ezifana ne-inverters, ifilimu ye-photovoltaic, kunye neglasi ye-photovoltaic zijoliswe kwi-industry chain chain abathengi abasezantsi, ngoko ke inzuzo kwi-2021 yachaphazeleka kwiidigri ezahlukeneyo.
Loluphi utshintsho oluya kwenzeka kwishishini le-PV kwixesha elizayo?
Ixabiso le-silicon ye-Skyrocketed sesona sizathu siphambili sotshintsho kwipatheni yokusasazwa kwenzuzo ye-PV industry chain ngo-2021. Ke, amaxabiso e-silicon aya kuhla nini kwixesha elizayo kwaye loluphi utshintsho oluya kwenzeka kwikhonkco loshishino lwe-PV emva kokuhla kube yinto ekugxilwe kuyo. yengqalelo yabatyali-zimali.
1. Isigwebo sexabiso le-silicon: Ixabiso eliphakathi lihlala liphezulu ngo-2022, kwaye liqala ukuhla ngo-2023.
Ngokwedatha ye-ZJSC, amandla e-silicon ehlabathi jikelele ngo-2022 amalunga neetoni ezingama-840,000, okumalunga ne-50% yokukhula konyaka nonyaka kwaye inokuxhasa malunga ne-294GW yemfuno ye-silicon wafer.Ukuba sithathela ingqalelo umlinganiselo wokwabiwa kwamandla we-1.2, umthamo wesilicon osebenzayo weetoni ezingama-840,000 ngo-2022 unokudibana malunga ne-245GW yomthamo ofakiweyo wePV.
2. I-Silicon wafer segment kulindeleke ukuba iqalise imfazwe yexabiso ngo-2023-2024.
Njengoko sisazi kuphononongo lwangaphambili luka-2021, iinkampani ze-silicon wafer zixhamla ngokuyimfuneko kweli nqanaba lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-silicon.Nje ukuba amaxabiso e-silicon ehle kwixesha elizayo, iinkampani ze-wafer ngokuqinisekileyo ziya kuthoba amaxabiso azo we-wafer ngenxa yoxinzelelo oluvela koontanga kunye namacandelo asezantsi, kwaye nokuba imida yegross ihlala ifana okanye yonyuka, inzuzo epheleleyo nge-GW nganye iya kuhla.
3. Iiseli kunye neemodyuli ziya kuchacha kwingxaki ngo-2023.
Njengoko elona “xhoba” likhulu lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-silicon, iinkampani zeeseli kunye neemodyuli zithe cwaka zathwala iindleko zalo lonke uxinezeleko lweshishini ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo uninzi lwethemba lokuba amaxabiso e-silicon ehle.
Imeko iyonke ye-PV industry chain ngo-2022 iya kufana naleyo ka-2021, kwaye xa umthamo wesilicon ukhutshiwe ngokupheleleyo ngo-2023, i-silicon kunye ne-wafer segment ziya kuba namava emfazwe yexabiso, ngelixa inzuzo yemodyuli esezantsi kunye neseli. amacandelo aya kuqalisa ukuchola.Ke ngoko, iiseli, iimodyuli kunye neenkampani ezidityanisiweyo kwikhonkco leshishini lePV langoku ziya kufaneleka ngakumbi ukuqwalaselwa.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jun-10-2022